A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
